Is Hikaru Cheating?? Kramnik “YES!!!”
26.11.2023
On November 24 Kramnik tripled down on his accusations.
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No need a PhD in mathematics, just some introduction course to probability, and a bit of common sense
Dear Mr Hikaru, you have every right to defend yourself against accusations. However, I got half of the way through this video and had to stop, because you had literally repeated the same thing dozens of times – that the people producing the stats are actual mathematicians, and that neither you or Kramnik are mathematicians. You need 30 seconds to explain that. Why take 7 minutes repeating it over, and over, and over again? Perhaps you also spent the next 8 minutes just repeating that too? I'll never know. Life is too short. Less is more, dude.
It's hilarious how number of comments on his post went from 250+ to 166. Poor bro just sits there and tries his best to silence everyone.
I think krammnik is trying to get attention
Alright guys kramnik didn't even go through high school …
Can you increase the volume? Its too low
I'm glad you've addressed this fully, and I fully agree with no longer shining a light on this moving forward.
He didn't even go to highschool 💀
Maybe this is a super awkward post by me. I know nothing about chess, I just like listening to Hikaru bc I like the way he speaks. It's like some sort of ASMR to me. And from an "outside perspective" it sounds a lot like the whole chess community is way more infected than other competing sports communities. Am I wrong? And if not, why do you guys think it is like this? Just curious!
Seeing Kramnik accusing mathematicians as bots, makes me feel that someone accusing him cheating because he didn't play a fool's mate😅
So Kramnik’s basis for this accusation is basically “trust me bro”…
I played Hikaru, in a speedrun against low players. As a 1260 elo player i lost in 36 moves. When i look back at this it was "interesting"🤔😂😂.
Lot of respect lost for Kramnik. Way too much arrogance
Forget statistics, Kramnik doesn't seem to know what a full monty is.
Let's pray that Kramnik, realizing his mistake, will accuse Hikaru of cheating. Hikaru is not only a chess player, he is also a streamer who always entertains us all. There is an interesting perspective on the world of chess, when Hikaru is streaming. Hikaru will become a legend and a world chess legacy
Haikuru:
Chessboard battle plays,
Hikaru's mind, a strategy,
Checkmate whispers grace.
One can be really smart at chess and be otherwise unrouded. This is not just a Kramnik problem but one that keeps popping up in the world.
My conspiracy theory is that the top of chess community decided to create a cheating scandal once a year to maintain popularity and have a source of content for many chess related channels.
You need the farming victim adjusted elo.
inst beating average 2400 is like ezpz for hikaru and top players?
Kramnik needs more toilet trips
😂
You are handling this very professionally. I hope kramnik stops bashing other people and shows his proof. I mean, why would someone seriously accuse others of cheating without showing all of the existing evidence.
A bit ironic considering how you accused Niemann without any proof
Hikaru, thank you for speaking out and keep responding. This is amazing!
KRAMNIK DOESNT EVEN GRADUATE HIGHSCHOOL? WHAT A SURPRISE 🙂
Oliver Dunning Kruger Kramnik
So when is Hikaru filing a lawsuit for say 1billion dollars?!
I mean if Hans felt he was worth 100 million then Hikaru should claim far more 😎
Let me tell you something as someone who has a PhD on probability theory. The whole calculations that people give assume that those 46 games are independent from each other. This is an understandable assumption because it's very hard to model a dependence using limited data. But the reality is that a single human is usually very bad at behaving independently at different events (games here). Once you play with someone, your next game is not independent from the previous because people learn. So, if Hikaru plays with the same person 10 times in a row, the distribution of the outcome of these games won't be the binomial distribution as we model. As a rule of thumb, the odds would favor the better player, that is, the better player should win more on average than the model estimates, because the better player is supposed to "learn" faster in general. There is also human psychology aspect of this. The opponents know that they play with Hikaru, which usually puts more pressure on them than it puts on Hikaru. So, a 2900 elo can play like a 2900 against someone their level, but might play like a 2800 against Hikaru.
To sum up, 46 wins out of 47 independent games is about 2% probability for Hikaru's elo. But because the independence assumption is flawed, this might be equivalent to 24 out of 25 wins maybe, which is about 18% probability. I just made up 25 by the way. It's crazy that crazy things happened because of a supposedly 2% event. It's not even rare. It roughly means that if you play 100 games a day, you will get it once a month.
What is happening to that guy Kramnik? Is he having a life crisis? He’s melting down and behaves like a petulant child…😮
It's a pity to see a legend like Vladimir Kramnik destroying his reputation and his spot in the pantheon of chess.
Magnus Carlsen went for 125 games between 2018 and 2020 without registering a loss. This was over the board and against the best players in the world. Was he cheating? How would basic counting methods view this outcome?
Jose Raul Capablanca didn't lose a single game from February of 1916 until March of 1924. A span of 63 games against the top players of his era. Was he cheating? With which computer system? What would Kramnik's mathematics make of that?
Bobby Fischer outright won 20 games in a row starting in the 1970 Interzonal and proceeding through two perfect 6-0 candidates matches against Taimanov and Larsen. Was he cheating? With what computer? How would this look to Kramnik now?
What about Wilhelm Steinitz? He won every game he played from August of 1873 to May of 1882, a span of almost 9 years , a total of 25 games, and across several dead zones where he didn't play at all for long periods. How could he basically retire and then come back and beat top players so many times? Was he cheating? The Mechanical Turk, it seems, may not have been destroyed in 1854.
Kramnik is like the people everyone know IRL that know everything, been everywhere and seen everything, but every time they speak about something people know about, it's made up bullshit … and if you confront them with the bullshit they keep digging a deeper more fake hole to teh point you stop responding to them 🙂
Kramnic is tripling down on this gaslighting nonsense.
The dude is seriously delisional.
So what I am getting from this whole brouhaha is very interesting. If Hikaru plays 30,000 games against random players, even if they are all rated over 2700, then the odds of a 45 game win streak occurring are about 99%. In fact, it would be weird if he didn't have a win streak like that.
So Kramnik is full of shit, and he should apologize.
I already mentioned in another video, these accusations can cause people inconvenience. As I said before, Hikaru himself once insinuated that Paulo Supi was cheating on him. It caused trouble for Supi. In this case (Hikaru) at least he didn't have his account taken down. I hope these things make these guys sort themselves out, Hikaru is a great player, I really like his style.
"Did not go to high school"💀
EVERY first year under grad of any STEM course should be able to dismiss the "statistical" claims.
Get your binomials right, do some combinatorics, and sum up your results – Bada-Bing Bada-Boom.
Hikaru should have a streak like that at least once a year.
At this point , kramnik is just giving hikaru youtube videos
This video gives him far more respect than he deserves. Credit to you for being so gracious about it all. But he has completely humiliated himself; his legacy is irreperably tarnished, and regardless of how great of a chess player he was, for me now all he is is a crazy old man yelling at clouds.
Vladimir "banned from the toilet" kramnik
I know you're not cheating. But you accused Supi more than once without any proof.
when kramnik wrote “this is MY BLOG and MY HOME” that’s when I realized he just wants to stay in his echo chamber and no amount of evidence will get him out
What does “full mounty” mean???
Does Kramnik think that all these statisticians are cos-playing Dudley Do-Right whilst explaining how wrong he is?
😂😂😂😂
Or if he didn't make that mistake, then he must have made some other mistake, or he is right, in which case he should publish his analysis in detail. But if you post selected a subset to consider you always have to look at where the post selection came from to answer questions about the probability of the subset in question. The probability of the subset when viewed in isolation is important but only in relation to what you post selected from in order to get an over all probability for how likley it is for one series of games in someones record to be this unlikely. That is just what you have to do, there is no way around it. Just because the whole set is comprised of different dice, that does not mean you can say, given Hikarus games, this particular subset has this probability, and then give the probability of that subset given only ratings, you have to say given that i pick out x number of equally sized random subsets against similar opponents, what is the probability for the subset in question. That is the bottom line and it is going to stand until the end of time, just like any other theorem would.
Here the statistical analysis of a computer simulation: assuming Nakamura plays 5000 blitz games a year (I have no better estimation for it) with players being 350 ELO lower rated than him, the probability for having a 46-games winning streak within these 5000 games is 19.17% (with a +-0.37% 1-sigma confidence interval of the simulation). Assuming he plays only 2000 blitz games a year (which I think is a low number), the probability for a 46-games winning streak is still 8.11% (+-0.28% 1-sigma CI).
For a 3-year period, assuming 5000 games per year, the probability of a 46-games winning streak to occur within these 3 years is 47.33% (+-0.46% 1-sigma CI). So it's close to 50%, like flipping a coin, for a 3-years period.
(note this analysis was even done for a score of 46/46, not 45.5/46, but that's no big difference; the analysis also assumes independent games, whereas in reality the psychological factor of a winning/loosing streak can be assumed to be on the winner's side, i.e. the probabilities for winning streaks against a small number of changing opponents, as for the streak under discussion, can assumed to be even higher).
It is a pity, as Kramnik's initial analysis of cheating at titled-Tuesdays was very interesting (and important!!!!), but accusing Nakamura of cheating based on an observed 45.5/46-streak is ridiculous from a statistical point of view, as it actually is unlikely that Nakamura does not have this kind of winning streak every couple of years. I wonder why the 500-ELO mathematician Kramnik did not check this claim with his mathematician friends before posting. Unfortunately, all his previous analysis also looses credibility now.
This series will make anyone who accuses Hikaru of anything think twice
Kramnik should enjoy his retired life
Kramnik really wanted to be a fake prophet and accuse any player that is better than him. What a low life.
I’m a college educated interestician, and there’s a 100% chance that interesting commentary about cheating will be discussed every day through out this week.