Kramnik Continues Attack on Hikaru!!!!
24.11.2023
The next day, Kramnik went even further on his blog on chess.com about Hikaru having “interesting” stats and he says there will be MORE!
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Kramnik is cherry-picking intervals. The probability of any 50 game interval having a very high winrate is much higher than the probability of a random 50 game interval having the same very high winrate. Calculations based on ELO only tell you the latter.
Statistics is full of pitfalls. Don't even trust something because a "Mathemstician" says it, if they are an Algebraist or something and hardly touch probability theory, then they can be completely tripped up. If multiple proffesional statitlstician with years of experience in the sub-area relevant to the problem say something, then you can probably trust that, but still be very careful. Look at something as simple as the history of the Monty Hall problem to see how wrong so many can be.
Statistics and probability are notorious for counter-intuitive results and massive potential for pitfalls and errors in reasoning.
9:40 Are you sure it's a very good comment? The first half of it is personal insults towards Kramnik, the second half claims that if you accuse a player of cheating, you automatically accuse everyone who performs higher, which doesn't make sense.
"Wrong answer, Vlady" lol
Hikaru would be a favorite over Dubov in any format. Dude live streams himself adopting GMs. We see each of his moves, and he highlights his ideas with his lightning quick mouse. Unless Hikaru has Elon's chip implanted secretly, he is clean, and these accusations are rooted in some personal jealousy or disdain of Hikaru. What a weirdo for a former world champion.
this video provides a clear reason why people should stay in their lanes. even people with massive expertise in some field are unlikely to know anything at all in other fields. you wouldn't ask a brain surgeon to fly a plane, or a physicist to fight a fire. being world chess champion does not give you any expertise in numerical analysis
sadly, kramnik appears to be losing his mind, or at least his sense of reality.
sadly, this is a real risk for any high-level chess player
also, people who try to piss on hikaru tend to wind up with wet faces
noobs take note: hikaru WILL farm you
if he botez gambits, you should run for the bomb shelter
Ig hikaru should play kramnik a series of games that would ans him how hikaru is playing like a universe boss
Respect for hikaru !!
A really similar event occurred in the Minecreaft Speedrun world where youtube Dream was found to be guilty using a modified version of the game to have more favorable RNG.
StandUp Maths has a great video on it covering what cherry picking is, how the commission took it into consideration evaluating the speedrun and, in general "How improbable is too improbable" (real title should be like "How lucky is too lucky?").
Really suggest the video if anyone is interested!
If Hikaru cheats, I bet he would call out other people for cheating so that he brings attention to himself xd
This is a potential lawsuit, no?
Hikaru is a BOT
Hikaru is a BOT
Hijaru is a xheater
Kramnik is doing his Kramnik thing while Hikaru is doing his!
You’ve got it spot on about stats, you have got to have a large and unbiased data set for them to work. You cannot tell if someone is cheating from one game or even several cherry picked games. Remember that a random move generator can and will be Stockfish if given enough goes, that does not mean it’s better at chess!
Don't worry hikaru, you're still my favorite streamer even tho you're a cheater😂😂😂
is Magnus cheating as well? 😂
It's the fact that there really is no supervision on online chess, so there isn't any way to verify if someone is cheating or not. I don't think Hikaru is cheating at all, but Hikaru and other players should get together and make clear rules to prevent cheating in online tournaments because it's possible for it to happen in so many different ways. I don't think it is really possible to prevent cheating online, though.
Disclaimer: While I don't believe any specific "YouTube mathematician" should be believed with a high degree of certainty, we can statistically conclude that the amount of evidence that counters Mr. Kramnik's claims at a minimum raises enough reasonable doubt to cast aside the pseudo-scientific data in favor a more rigorous evidence based approach. In short, Heir Kramnik, leave the math to the professionals and please take your anxiety meds. While your heart may be in the right place, your head has been compromised by an appeal to emotion, a false notion of "common sense", and ideas of of misguided heroism. To paraphrase Ian, we got the hero we deserved instead of the hero we need. The real hero will ride to the scene equipped with only data, sound methodology, and mathematical evidence. Nice try, Vlad, but no cigar.
"resent hysteria" , cmon bro
Hans is student of karmnik
vladimir'a age is affecting his ability to play online with a mouse = hikaru cheating
Being accused of cheating when you’re not has got to be the biggest compliment.
You should invite a few statisticians for a special “podcast” like video, to discuss this. This example is such a good showcase of why probabilities can indeed be deceiving, and I think many academics would like to take a chance to explain this situation thoroughly and calmly.
One Famous case is “People vs Collins”. Basically, even if it is unlikely that an event occurs, if you consider enough events it is no longer unlikely.
I think Kramnik would want to check over Hikaru's all chess history statistics now that he sees Hikaru's totally confident and has little fear of his accusation of cheating in those "46 CONSECUTIVE" games. Were I to be in his position, I would sweat over my pants searching for signs of cheating in Hikaru's thousands of games for a thousand time, calculating all the possibility, all his unusual moves for another thousand time, and analyzing what he's trying to do, reading his intentions, predicting his next moves, for another thousand time. And I've successfully realized, I have wet my pants for three thousand times.
It was always the ceiling.
I've long suspected that Hikaru is getting those great moves from the neon pineapple on the wall behind him. I mean it's so obvious. He plays like a 2100 when that thing is turned off.
Plot twist : Kramnik actually just want to give Hikaru new content
Looking at Peter Bugaj reasoning, I should admit, that it is very simple and reasonable not even delving into complex models. Say Fabi 7 wins in a row against 2700+ players is a zero-prob event if taken separately without addressing human anomalies and treating chess players as only numbers. I am surprised that Vlad is so naive.
Probably using "The beads". Please can you disclose whether you are using the beads
Win streaks depend a lot on human factors and hence can't be used as solid evidence for cheating. People have very good or bad days.
On the other hand, if someone gets 45 best moves in a row in a complex game, playing well above their level, with each move taking about 10 seconds and they can't explain their analysis afterwards – that's very different.
Yes, Kramnik's analysis is like a 500 ELO mathematician. I also did maths at uni and I can tell you, the other guy's analysis was far more accurate and thorough. Add in psychological factors (like tilting or "getting in the zone") and streaks become far more regular.
I have great respect for kramnik. His courses on Chessables are Awesome. He was a great player at one time. But now he sounds like the boy who cried wolf. Like the lady in the old
Delta dawn song by Tanya Tucker. He sees "cheaters" everywhere. He really needs to stop accusing people before he loses all respect and credibility.
Im sorry but you dont even need to be a good mathematician to understand the top 3 chessplayer playing thousands of games per year has a good streak ok a far lower rated player 😂 dude kramnick just a idiot
Hikaru doing his second run (47.5/48) while Kramnik keeps insulting people in his blog was HILARIOUS! 🙂
oh oh kramnik did an oopsie 🙂 🙂 🙂
A great example of how probabilities change with scale is the Birthday Paradox.
Pick 2 people at random and their chances of sharing a birthday are incredibly slim (1 in 365). Pick 3 or 4 and the odds rise slightly but are still incredibly low. HOWEVER the odds increase exponentially with each person added to the group to the point where you only need 23 people to get a better than 50/50 chance that at least 2 people share a birthday.
This is whats hapoened here. Is taking 45.5 out of 46 incredibly rare even for someone like Hikaru? Yes. But when you run the sample thousands of times, it'd be stranger if it DIDNT happen
This is absolutely shameful mr.kramnik, hikaru has been performing at this level for over 15 years on online chess, and publicly stated that he has gone better at chess in general and specifically classical and otp after he was no longer depending on chess for living, and that is obvious to every one even fabiano stated that hikaru is they only player in his generation who has actually gotten better, so i dont really understand kramnik's case here, and if we are ready to accuse people for being so goddamn good at chess then why is he not accusing magnus for fucking up the whole scene for over 15 years ? by the way, those old fellas dont really seem to understand the power of time trouble and mouse skills, i am a 1900 blitz player, if i play 3.0 i feel that im playing against a 1700, and if i play 3.2 its a whole different story it feels like they are 2200 just because they know when they get a good position they will be able to gain time, so i dare to say that 3.0 lowers your rating with at least 200 elo if you are not fast and confident. @hikaru im so sorry you have to go through all of that, we love you and believe in you. be happy dont give a f for those haters
What a clown that Kramnik dude is. He managed to make his life legacy to be "Greate chess player BUT…"
Disgusting that a former world chess champion is dragging Hikaru’s name through the mud. Hikaru handling this like the world class player that he is. Much respect!!!
When people want to spread propaganda or lies about other people they tend not to care about what the fact are and in some cases they will try to manipulate them to fit there agenda whatever it may be. The easiest way for us the viewers to know what is true agenda behind these claims is by shedding light on what has been done in the darkness but until then speaking the truth is the best course of action
russians completely lost their mind. It all started in 2014 when annexed the Ukrainian Crimea and started the biggest war in the 21st century in 2022 in Ukraine. Now we see this which is expected for the informational war expansion
Mature and holistic stataments by Hikaru. Congrats
cheater cheater woman beater
Everyone know you cheat big time sucker
Kramnik, is just in need of attention.
Are we ignoring the fact that these are all russian players accusing an american player ?
Kramnik may not be a mathematician, but he shows real potential as an online content creator. He should open a Youtube channel. KremlinChess??
If you use a compuker for prep your cheating
Remember when you accused Hans with the same evidence?
Fk the haters, you are really good at what you do. Period.