Kramnik Continues Attack on Hikaru!!!!
24.11.2023
The next day, Kramnik went even further on his blog on chess.com about Hikaru having “interesting” stats and he says there will be MORE!
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I bet Kramnik will not understand this …
Kramnik is a delusional cry baby who gets butthurt when he loses. He's the best chess player in history in his mind, and anyone that beats him has to be cheating. There's just no other way for him to cope with it. Just watching the press conference with him and Ding was enough to heavily discount anything that comes out of his corner.
lol ruskies talking about cheating? Their chess players cant even pass a doping test they cant even play under their own shit flag due to cheating scandals hahahahhaha
Kramnik just got blown off the board.
A bitter Russian past his prime is lashing out at the world? No way!
Paranoia is an integral part of any good chessplayer's thinking process. A really good player, even more so.
A great grandmaster 😂
Kramnik Uchiha 😂
According to this ELO bs I should win 1 game every 200'000 against Hikaru
Basically, he’s just disregarding the losses before and after the 46 or whatever game period. Thinking a 45/46 record (or whatever it was) is the same percentage as a 45/49 record is straight up retarded. You don’t need to be a mathematician to understand any of this. Take the entire day or week of games, not just a streak. That’s the same as taking any other streak and assessing their probability.
BY DEFINITION, a streak must have a fail directly before and after it occurs. Joe DiMaggio had a hit in 56 games in a row in 1941. But his batting average that year was about .350. If you just take those 56 games as a set, the odds of having a hit every time is vanishing small, but if you look at the games on either side of the streak, so 58 games (where he didn’t get a hits) the odds of that happening get higher.. 56 out of 58 games. If you continue expanding the set of games until it includes the whole season, it’s still impressive but nowhere near as unlikely. The point is that only using a “streak” to calculate probability is misleading. Like going to Vegas and playing roulette, but you don’t count the last spin where you lost all your money.
As another fellow scientist from the same city as the author of the reddit comment (altough affiliated with a different university), I belive that this shallow analisis is at least parttially correct and the assumption made by Kramnik seems rush to say the least.
There is four possible out comes from a statistical model: Positive, Negative and more interesting: False Positive or False Negative.
A nice parameter would be to include "$Prob(Blunder) prop Prob(Tilt, etc.)$". Since Blunder implies Prob(Loss) = (Super high).
kramnik, sit.
Psychological pressure is huge in chess , hard to measure this
Hikaru is not cheating! Ridiculous too think otherwise. I would bet both my nuts that he is not cheating. That's how confident I' am. He is just extremely talented at chess. Probably top 2-3 in the world on any given day. And has the chops to beat the Carlson from time to time. Fact!
Wow
It's somewhat of a compliment that he thinks Hikaru is cheating.
Obviously the guy has lost his mind though.
Piotr for president!
Chess is not an equation, “chess is life!”💯
most constant worlds no.2 accused of cheating while guy with insane game spikes who can't even explain his moves and thoughts is not cheating. seems legit. (only in idiocracy though)
The fact that the one who got accuse of cheating yet having A LOT MORE support is already tell us who is DELUSIONAL!!!
5:00 Obviously Kramnik doesn’t understand statistics. He would be lost in a casino 😂. Strikes with a 1.5% probability happen often when you consider all possible strikes. It is like thinking you constantly have a 98.5% probability when you play in a roulette with enough cash to stand a strike with 1.5% probability using for example the Martingale strategy. That’s wrong, you will lose all your money, because that strike will happen more than once in just 100 plays (well, not for sure, but it is very likely to happen). In fact, if Hikaru was constantly over performing, his Elo wouldn’t stop increasing 😅. And the strikes he has with his elo on lower rated players are NOT a statistical anomaly, in fact they are UNAVOIDABLE with his elo…ignorance my friends.
Imagine being so good that people accuse you of cheating.
Kramnik is making three fundamental errors.
1) He is calculating his probabilities assuming that all the games are separate unrelated events, each independent of the others. In fact these events are highly correlated.
The form of both players is fixed for the day in question and has minimal opportunity for variation. It is plausible Hikaru had a good day and his opponents had bad days.
The psychology of defeat after defeat fuels desperation, second-guessing and slower less clear decision making. A coin doesn't care about its previous flips, nor a die about its previous rolls. Chess players do care about their previous games and it can muddle their thinking.
2) applying statistics to a single event is fraught. Many of the central results of statistics only hold if you take a sufficiently large sample
If you have one person do the same thing over and over they will sample a larger and larger range of results. If they make 10 million attempts it is almost certain they will achieve at least one "one in a million" result.
Looking at a single result and saying it's unlikely without considering the population size and the frequency of such events within that population is fatuous.
3) He is ignoring the distortive effects of selection bias.
Hikaru chose these opponents and kept playing them precisely because he thought he could farm rating points off them.
These match-ups were not the result of completely randomised pairings.
Hes right though
Its funny when he says "magnus effect" cause its a real effect in physics
Is farming slightly lower rated players risky because if you lose your elo plummets heaps ?
don't let it get in your head, bro. They're just trying to get in your mind so your performance goes down from the stress
What ? Hikaru farmed low rated players in blitz ? must be cheating because Kramnik can't do that.
As a civil engineer and someone who has dabbled in statistics in my own life, and also rated 2050 USCF myself – I will say this very strongly, and without CAPS. Rare events, although rare do happen! Also, rare players themselves also happen – like Hikaru and Magnus who are in my opinion the best players who ever lived. They are extraordinarily themselves and yes, they do and have the ability to perform at extraordinary and rare levels!!! Kramnik is wrong in my humble opinion.
Yikes 🥶will Hans and Hikaru make amends and join forces to go on a 2v2 box match against Magnus and Kramnik
People who know Kramnik forgot to take his pills
👇
TL;DR:
Kramnik cherry picks datasets for his "statistics" which is a big no-no in every data science field.
Kramnik is only counting wins and losses instead of actually looking OBJECTIVELY (which is proven he can't do) at the games that were played
Everyone with any mathematical knowledge whatsoever is proving kramnik wrong in multiple different ways
Grumpy old men will be grumpy old men
Why is Kramnik analyzing no increment games anyways when he doesn't even play that time control so he doesn't realize how streaky that time control can be? especially for the top blitz players in the world.
Krammik make a fool of himself
How can anyone not like him?
Hikaru would be the world's dumbest business man if at this point he decided to cheat on a 45 win streak, with basically nothing to gain and every part of his credibility to lose.
I hope I never hate anyone's success so much, that I blindly go chasing after them publicly like Kramnik is doing.
Hikaru: Do I look arrogant or not?
Kiramnik: No, you don't look like anything!
Hikaru has brought so much disgrace to the sports of chess. He is always arrogant when talking about someone else!!! I remember him making fun of Ali Ferouzja and calling Ali "a kid" until he was crushed by this same "kid" … He thinks, he belongs to the elite group of chess players … His IQ may belong to elite, but his personality and arrogance needed to be exposed. Kraminik has clearly exposed Hikaru … Kiraminik has been a World Champion for a reason!!! Respect that you rat, or else you will be forced to!!!!
That was a great example of Lance Armstrong style reaction.
yeah, actually, Kramnik had a two year streak of not losing a single game. Quite the statistical oddity, I'd say.
Guy can hang wuth Magnus on bullet which is like 0% chance you could cheat on that time.
You should sue him for defamation
Kramnik was my myth in the 2000s, then a favorite player of mine’s in the early 2010s, then a weird player with ultra-optimistic assessment of his positions and strength, then retired, then this.
Sad.
I hate calculating probability
I hope this inspires him to call Magnus out. 😂
I think top players, in any sport, by definition, challenge the stats. So, if stats is all he has, it does not seem like a strong argument.
These chess players are huffing too much Copium.
Mr H!!!
Stop !!!!!!
We know you cheated)))))))))
By kramniks logic, nobody can win the lottery without cheating 😂