Hikaru accused of cheating AGAIN????
28.11.2023
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I'm sure the framework of the question would be should farming be banned or banned for top players because Hikaru just broke a record for highest rating but he didn't particularly do it earnestly
Kramnik is most likely starting to get dementia. It's quite sad to see.
I can relate to Kramnik’s point. I too think everyone that beats me is cheating.
The rating performance calculation is described here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performance_rating_(chess)
This is basically what you use to calculate the performance rating for norms in official tournaments when you play 9 to 11 rounds.
I'm no statistician, but I don't know how accurate it becomes when
1. You are literally better than everyone.
2. You play 45 games and because of 1. you win them all.
3. You are playing the same opponents repeatedly and are going to beat them every time.
I don't believe he is cheating. Like you said Levy. Why he would cheat when he is already on the top
Kramlik had a meeting with Hanns and reportedly got along swimmingly, my opinion, this looks like some kind of collusion, accuse the accuser
I think Kramnik should be the one investigated and stripped of his world titles. No way you can be that stupid and not understand basic maths & statistics and still win world titles. Has to be cheating.
The problem with all the justification is that all of these are accounted for in the ELO. So.. if your elo is 3300 and playing 2950 opponent and ELO tells you that your expected score is 85% then time advantage,Opening knowledge , fear and pressure .. it’s all accounted for. So, if Hikaru has improbable winnings over large number of games – it’s just that – improbable but not impossible . How improbable? Someone would need to calculate ..
low views?
It's 100% false to say that Kramnik isn't accusing him of cheating. That's his obvious intention.
Levy is being held hostage by the duolingo bird lol
Hikaru"SpeedDemon"Nakamura will eviscerate Kramnik and devour his soul if they face off in title Tuesday.
Peculiar that he chooses different ranges of games for his analysis. 46 games, 55 games, etc. no consistency
Hikaru cheats on camera – all the answers are on his ceiling
So I pulled Hikaru's games from September, October, and November and wrote a program to determine his average, maximum time discrepancy and only found 3 streaks probably due to my constraints (40+ games, no losses, and only 1 draw allowed). But the average, maximum time discrepancy for those streaks are as follows (this is the output directly from the program):
Streak of 50 games found on 2023.09.28.
Average max time discrepency is 50.258s
Streak of 44 games found on 2023.09.23.
Average max time discrepency is 20.859090909090913s
Streak of 46 games found on 2023.11.23.
Average max time discrepency is 29.876086956521743s
So your 30 second estimate is correct, and damn near spot on for the 46 game streak in November.
EDIT: I re-ran it with 35+ games and 2 draws, and got this:
Streak of 50 games found on 2023.09.28.
Average max time discrepency is 50.258s
Streak of 45 games found on 2023.09.23.
Average max time discrepency is 20.548888888888893s
Streak of 44 games found on 2023.09.23.
Average max time discrepency is 19.94545454545455s
Streak of 43 games found on 2023.09.23.
Average max time discrepency is 19.588372093023256s
Streak of 45 games found on 2023.09.16.
Average max time discrepency is 12.30888888888888s
Streak of 46 games found on 2023.11.23.
Average max time discrepency is 29.876086956521743s
So his average time is actually closer to 20 seconds than 30.
I recently beat a guy 700 points lower rated 12 games in a row until he lost interest. Am I cheating? :O
I’m not accusing him of cheating. I just think he might be cheating and needs to be investigated.
A statistics PhD here. Sorry to see a GM with such a fundamental misunderstanding of probability and statistical thinking. Uff, where to start… First of all, what Kramnik shows to support his claims is not a statistic but rather a single observation. Statistic would be for example a proportion of Hikaru's winning streaks with more than 45 wins. So what Kramnik uses is anecdotal evidence (conclusion based on a single observation) that has 0 to do with statistics and you literally learn not to do in your first high school stats class.
Seems at least somewhat likely to me, that Kramnick sees the record put up by Hikaru, knows that he can't replicate it. Then his ego won't let him admit to himself he just isn't good enough to do what Hikaru does. Also he speaks like a politician.
Kramnik is a cheater
The last guy was comparing performance online vs offline. The “catching” of cheaters is irrelevant.
With that said, his numbers suggest off and online cheating occurs at a similar rate.
Based on how people are reacting to the kramnik/hikaru situation, it’s clear the chess community is incredibly naive how easy it would be to cheat.
This is comical. You literally don’t need to be a mathematician or a statistician to run a Monte Carlo simulation. You can set this up in excel in under 20 mins. The fact that he’s pushing so hard for the dude to reveal his identity in order to validate his “research” makes it clear he just doesn’t understand any of this. It’s not research, it’s literally just a mc sim with params plugged in from numbers the HE provided.
magnus plays drunk for lols, hikaru plays for content
kramnik is completely insane
If it was never meant to be an accusation then why only say that several days later? Almost feels like kramnik is walking it back
also keep in mind, that Hikaru wins a lot of games because the opponent ran out of time although sometimes in a better position
If I play 50 games against a GM and I lose 50 times, they must be cheating because of a 100% win rate. Therefore I’m better than GMs.
If you look at Hikaru's wins though, he often flags in losing or drawn positions, it's not that he always crushes 2800+ rated GMs on the board but Hikaru is a master of using the clock to his benefit.
Kramnik needs copium. Hikaru is Him. Himkaru.
We gonna need the biggest apology from Kramik.
Every Clickbate is two likes to makeup for that one poster!
you forgot "crypto gambling promoter" and "copystriker of chessbrah" among all of hikarus honorable titles
Hikaru loves this, he will only get better now.
I’m like 1100 and beat my 600 partner like 40+ games in a row. Now they’re getting way better and I win maybe 9 out of 10 games. Cool to watch them grow. Statistically I’m sure there’s some math there that says something but who knows Kramnik chill
Can't you provide links so we can also look that up?
The only thing in the description is advertising. Pretty bad. Good video anyhow
kramnik looking very messy these days
Idk, seems like this Hikamaru guy is kinda sus. Probably need to check him ass.
its stupid to use monte carlo on a chess simulation
55 wins in a row then 45.5 of 46. Cheaters need to be Banned!
your really milking this
Would he make a similar claim if it were Magnus playing? And, remember, Hans was labeled a cheat largely as a result of statistics as well. Hans shot himself in the foot by actually admitting cheating in the past, thereby throwing doubt on his current integrity.
Hello, I just got your book. Thank you for writing it. Mercifully
, you don’t include a chapter on how to cheat. 😂😂
Kramnik is so very salty. He just can't seem to comprehend how someone could be so much better than he is; his ego just won't allow the possibility.
I bet if Hikaru and Kramnik went one on one in 3minute blitz, Hikaru will kick his ass hard.
All of Hikaru’s statistics are literally uses as the demo for the insights feature. There’s nothing he could get away with
If he believes the "math" than why does he hesitate on the accusation?
Statistics left the chat …
If Hikaru ever beat me in chess, I would probably not automatically suspect cheating. So far he has never beaten me.
The elo math is based on independent samples. These are not independent games by Hikaru against 46 different players. It is the same opponent over and over. Even doing this calculation is erroneous. They aren't independent samples. Kramnik is dead wrong to try to use this math against Hikaru
I think we should factor in that in those 46 games..
Hikaru had the same opponents over and over again
His win probably increases every time he understands
how this opponent plays like he is getting used to
the tendencies of his opponent.
The Dude fought people 7 or 8 times in a row
of course he would understand how they play.